This past week at the Le Web conference, Google CEO Eric Schmidt was asked why he thought most mobile developers were choosing to develop for iOS first, and Android second. Schmidt replied, “Six months from now you’ll say the opposite. Because ultimately applications vendors are driven by volume. And the volume is favored by the open approach that Google is taking.” (See video here, answer is at 41 minutes)

I’m not sure if he actually believes that, or if it’s just what he has to say because he’s the CEO of Google. In either case, I think he’s wrong.

Chart: Smartphone Marketshare

Market Share

Schmidt is arguing that because there are more Android phones than iPhones, it only makes sense for developers to focus their efforts on the larger platform. He’s right in that Android currenty has almost twice the market share as iOS, and marketshare is a big part of the puzzle (just ask anyone thinking about building a Windows Phone app), but market share doesn’t tell the whole story. More